Euro: Euro plunged to a low of 1.2604 in Friday’s session before rebounding and closing the session at 1.2666. The sentiment for this currency remains weak ahead of ECB rate decision later this week. Euro opened with a gap-down today and is trading below its key trendline support. On the downside if 1.2512 (Recent low) is broken decisively, it may push Euro further down to 1.2330. The upside could be restricted around 1.28 levels (21 Daily EMA). Initiate shorts around 1.2700 for intraday 80 pips. (Eur/Usd: 1.2564).

Pound: Cable witnessed a volatile session on Friday as it traded in 250 pips. Sterling plummeted to 1.4110 and recovered fast in the US session to close at 1.4313, taking strong resistance from the 21 Daily EMA. Technically, all the charts are indicating a downside with the support remaining at 1.41 (horizontal trendline). Break of this support can drag cable to 1.38. Initiate shorts around 1.43 for 70-80 pips. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4215).

Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair took resistance at 98.50 levels on Friday (50% Retracement of the fall in Daily charts) & retraced to test the bids at 96.84. The Daily & Hourly stochastic are overbought indicating downside for the pair, as the 4-hourly remains neutral. If 98.50 (200 Daily EMA) resistance is held, a pull back upto 96.00 could be seen. Initiate shorts cautiously around 98.00 levels for 70 pips. (Usd/Jpy: 97.55)

Rupee: Rupee’s decline has not ended yet as it went past the 51-mark on Friday and touched an all-time-low in the morning trade today at 51.82. The local unit is feeling the heat as there is a rising demand for dollar by the oil importers to meet their month end demand, dollar strength across the board and increased opportunities for arbitrage in the NDF market that is quoting weaker rupee rates. The bias continues to remain bearish and a break of 51.90 can take Rupee to 52.40. (USD/INR: 51.71).

Swiss Franc: The Usd/Chf pair strengthened almost 150 pips bouncing up from the support of 1.1611 (21 Daily EMA). The 4-hourly and daily charts continue to indicate an upside for the pair with the first support at 1.16 (21 Daily EMA & short term rising trendline) and then at 1.1515 (55 Daily EMA & 61.8% Retracement of the fall in Daily charts). Initiate longs at support zones for 80 – 100 pips. (Usd/Chf: 1.1725)

Australian Dollar: Aussie plunged almost 140 pips in the last trading session after taking resistance from the 21 Daily EMA and marked a low at 0.6339. Aussie briefly broke the 0.6300 – mark and in trading around 0.6330 levels currently. All the major charts are signaling a downside and a break below 0.6247 can take Aussie lower to 0.6009 lows (made on 27th Oct ’08). Shorts could be considered around 0.6400 levels for 70- 80 pips. (Aud/Usd : 0.6335)

Gold: Gold fell sharply by $35 against the greenback yesterday touching the bids of $927 in Friday’s session and taking support near the 38.2% Retracement, the yellow metal closed at $941. Currently, the hourly charts are overbought while the daily charts are getting oversold. Support remains around $920 (200 4-hourly EMA & 38.2% of the rise in daily charts) where longs can be initiated for $12 – $15 gain. (Gold: $951.00)

Dollar index: Dollar Index strengthened and is trading close to its resistance at 88.77 levels. The stochastic is overbought at 87.56 levels.

About the author

India Forex Research Team. India Forex Advisors Pvt Ltd 23, 1st floor | Great Western Building | Lion Gate | Fort, Mumbai - 23. P: +91 (0) 22 6526 2886 | M: +91 9769 2775 38 | F: +91 (0) 22 66390484 | admin@indaforex.in | www.indiaforex.in Disclaimer: These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.